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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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